Airlines Should Strive To Eliminate 70% Of Emissions By Mid-Century

By 2050, airlines can eliminate up to 70 per cent of emissions, but will fail to meet net-zero goals if air traffic grows faster than GDP. This can be gone about by enhancing engine and aircraft efficiency, adopting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and optimizing aircraft operations. The current limitations of technology indicate that these efforts alone may not be enough for the industry to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050, particularly if air traffic continues to outpace GDP growth.

Airlines will begin increasing ticket prices by 2026 as they seek funding for their net-zero transition. This increase in ticket prices is expected to decrease global demand by 3.5 per cent by 2030. These observations and suggestions have been made in a comprehensive ‘A realistic path to net-zero emissions for commercial aviation’ report brought out by Bain & Company.

The cost of SAF is expected to be two to four times higher than the average price of Jet A fuel – the most commonly used aviation fuel over the past decade – by 2050. For the aviation industry to achieve the goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, it will need to invest approximately $2.1 trillion. This, combined with the high maintenance costs of new aircraft, suggests that airlines are likely to experience an overall cost increase of up to 18 per cent by 2050.

The Bain & Company research indicates that under current policies, the total supply of SAF in 2050 will be limited to 135 Mt, which accounts for approximately 35 per cent of the projected global jet fuel demand. It has, meanwhile, identified three government actions that could significantly boost supply of SAF: providing incentives to biofuel refineries instead of renewable diesel; prioritising aviation for access to biofuel feedstock, and directing green hydrogen to SAF refineries to enhance the yield of the Fischer–Tropsch process.

Once implemented, these policies will result in SAF meeting 60 per cent of the global jet fuel demand. The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) had in July presented a plan to the government aiming to convert sugar mills into bio-refineries to boost production of SAF. "Investments in fuel production, incentivising green innovations and subsidies to encourage the creation of bio-refineries can help bridge the demand and supply gap to some extent. On National Energy Conservation Day (December 14), it is important that aviation companies think of sustainability as a core aspect of their operations and create a decarbonisation blueprint by reducing emissions and updating technology to mitigate their carbon footprint," says Jaideep Mirchandani, Group Chairman of Sky One.

Achieving carbon neutrality in commercial aviation by 2050 will require a combination of various technologies – there is no single solution. While all technologies have the potential to contribute to the net-zero goal, two, in particular, are expected to fall short of expectations by 2050-hydrogen and full-electric propulsion. Both technologies will not mature rapidly enough to replace a significant portion of the current aircraft fleets within the next three decades.

The initial hydrogen and full-electric aircraft will encounter several economic and technological challenges. In the case of full-electric propulsion, advancing battery densities are unlikely to keep pace with the power demands of narrow-body or wide-body jets.